I’ve heard back from a few more search chairs and a few of them are running the same searches this year as last year.

One quick piece of information.  The pool of candidates looks a lot stronger this year than last year.  This includes assistant professors trying to move and newly minted ABDs.

It isn’t hard to understand on how an increased supply of jobs leads a bunch of assistant to start sending out applications.  But why does the pool of ABDs look stronger this year than last?  Why are there so many candiates on the market with publications?

1.  Selection (entering the market): The decision on when to go on the market isn’t always clear.  Good markets make that decision a bit easier.  This “good” market may have lead lots of candidates that otherwise wouldn’t have gone on the market this year to enter now.  My guess (no data on this) is that students that have pubs are the ones that feel like they are competitive and thus entered the market this year.

2.  Luck.  Some years are booms, some are busts.  I know WashU has a huge class on the market this year mostly due to having a large incoming class five years ago.  This class was very, very strong and we had very little attrition.

3. Productivity: A few of my lawyer friends told me that the downturn has increased pressure for lawyer to work more billable hours and figure out more ways to become more efficient.  The bad market may have incentivized students (and faculty) to push harder to publish.

These are really conjectures.  But search chairs think this year’s ABDs seem to have more publications than previous years.